Benjamin Beck, CFP®"It's Coming"
Who doesn’t love a big thunderstorm? The rumble of thunder, the streaks of lightning, and the sheer power of nature—it’s mesmerizing. There’s something about witnessing the raw energy of a storm that reminds us of how small we are in the grand scheme of things. And maybe, just maybe, there’s something healthy about that little jolt of fear storms bring. They grab our attention, ground us, and make us pay closer attention to the world around us.
Perhaps that’s why one of my favorite movies is the 1996 thriller, Twister. It’s a story about a group of storm chasers who dedicate their lives to studying tornadoes, especially the rare and terrifying F5—the most powerful and destructive category of all. Their mission centers around Dorothy, a groundbreaking device designed to release hundreds of sensors into a tornado’s funnel, providing crucial data to help scientists better understand and predict these storms. The film captures the chaos, beauty, and danger of nature at its most extreme, and its characters face every storm with a mix of awe and determination.
One scene always stands out to me. As Dusty, the team’s passionate and eccentric meteorologist played by Philip Seymour Hoffman, monitors the atmosphere from his van, he suddenly notices an extreme and rapid drop in atmospheric pressure—a telltale sign that something big is about to hit. Jolted by the realization, he bursts out of his van, sprinting toward his team, and exclaims the iconic line, “It’s coming!!” The energy shifts instantly. Dusty’s urgent warning throws the team into overdrive as they scramble to prepare for the storm barreling toward them. But amidst the chaos, Bill Paxton’s character—a veteran storm chaser with years of experience—calmly responds, “It’s already here.”
That line resonates with me because it reflects the reality of life’s storms, both literal and metaphorical. We often think we can see them coming, but more often than not, we’re already in them before we fully realize it. And in those moments, it’s not excitement or fear that gets us through—it’s preparation, discipline, and focus. That’s where the real strength lies.
Why We’re Talking About Tornadoes
You might be wondering why we’re discussing tornadoes in the middle of winter. Here’s the connection: Just as tornadoes are a natural, recurring part of the weather, so too are downturns a natural, recurring part of the market. On average, the S&P 500 has experienced a bear market (a decline of 20% or more) roughly every 5.5 years since World War II. Market corrections (declines of 10% or more) are even more frequent, occurring every 18 months.
The good news? These downturns are temporary, just like storms. Historically, every bear market and correction has been followed by a recovery—and often a period of extraordinary growth. However, when you’re in the middle of the storm, it’s easy to lose perspective.
This is where our role comes in.
Your Calm in the Storm
In Twister, Dusty’s passion and energy serve as a spark, but it’s Bill Harding’s steady leadership that keeps the team moving toward their goal. As your financial advisor, our role is similar. We’re here to provide calm and clarity when the markets turn volatile. We’re here to ensure that the plan—your financial “Dorothy”—stays on course, no matter how fierce the storm gets.
We understand that market downturns can feel unsettling, even frightening. It’s natural to worry about the impact on your investments and your long-term goals. But as long as your goals remain unchanged, so will our plan. Together, we’ve built a strategy that accounts for market volatility, because we know the storms will come.
It’s our job to keep you focused on the horizon, not the storm clouds overhead. We’ll continue to make sure your financial plan is rooted in discipline and aligned with your most cherished lifetime goals.
Why Preparation Matters
Just as the storm-chasing team in Twister relied on preparation, we rely on our principles to guide us through turbulent times. Here again are three core beliefs that anchor our approach:
- We are long-term, goal-focused, plan-driven investors. Our decisions are guided by your unique financial goals, not by market forecasts or short-term noise.
- The economy cannot be consistently forecast, and markets cannot be consistently timed. We know that the only way to capture the long-term growth of equities is to ride out their inevitable declines.
- We do not react to economic or market events. As long as your long-term goals remain unchanged, so does our plan to achieve them.
These principles have served us well, and they will continue to guide us in 2025 and beyond.
Reflections on 2024
This past year was another reminder of the resilience of markets and the strength of disciplined investing. Powered largely by a few of the largest technology companies, equity markets delivered solid returns. While some feared the market had gotten ahead of itself—particularly as valuations for certain companies soared—history has shown that trying to time market highs and lows is a losing game. Instead, we focused on staying the course, adhering to our discipline—and it paid off.
At the same time, challenges remain. Inflation, while moderating compared to prior years, continues to be a concern, and monetary policy remains tight as the Federal Reserve seeks to maintain price stability. Interest rates remain elevated, creating headwinds for housing and corporate borrowing, but the consumer is in remarkably good shape. Household debt levels are near 40-year lows, unemployment remains historically low, and wage growth has supported continued economic activity. Corporate earnings and dividends have reached record highs, and despite concerns over stretched valuations, innovation and resilience across industries point to a bright long-term future.
On the political front, the presidential election was a defining event of the year. While the months leading up to the election brought some uncertainty, the clear and uncontested outcome provided a sense of stability to markets and businesses. Additionally, global events—ranging from geopolitical tensions to breakthroughs in technology—underscored the importance of staying grounded in long-term planning amidst an ever-changing world.
Reflecting on 2024, we’re reminded that challenges are inevitable, but so too is progress.
Looking Ahead
The storms will come. There is no doubt about that. Whether it’s a 10% correction, a larger bear market, or something in between, downturns are a natural part of investing. But just as F5 tornadoes are rare, so too are catastrophic market events. Most downturns are temporary, and history has shown us that regardless of the depth of the decline, patience and discipline have ALWAYS been rewarded over time.
Our long-term plans never rely on predicting the weather—or the markets. Instead, they’re built on a foundation of evidence, discipline, and your unique goals. As we move through 2025, you can rest assured that we will continue to guide you with the same focus and determination that Bill Harding brought to his team in Twister.
A Final Word
We wish all of our clients and friends—because to us, they’re one and the same—a healthy, happy, and prosperous 2025. Thank you for trusting us to be your guides through the storms of life and markets. It is a privilege to serve you, and we are always here to answer your questions or address your concerns.
Remember, the storms are inevitable—but so is our resilience. Together, we are prepared, disciplined, and focused on the horizon.
Warm Regards,
Benjamin Beck, CFP®
Ben Beck is Managing Partner & Chief Investment Officer at Beck Bode, a deliberately different wealth management firm with a unique view on investing, business and life.